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What Market Cycles Mean for your Crypto
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What Market Cycles Mean for your Crypto
In the latest Crypto Curious podcast episode;Tracey, Craig and Blake talk about the latest hot topic in crypto right now - market cycles. Bitcoin's recent dip from $69k to $30k has got people asking, what's going on? Is this rally over and are we entering a new market cycle? What even ARE market cycles?
Crypto market cycles have been happening since the first massive price rally in 2013. Following the second significant rally in 2017, analysts began tracking trends and noticing patterns in Bitcoin's movements. Market cycles are typically affected by industry developments, such as the 2017 ICO boom or recently, NFTs. However, in Bitcoin's case, the four-year halving event is unique because of how it controls scarcity and affects Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio (S2F).
We now find ourselves amid a third crypto market cycle, following the May 2020 Bitcoin halving event and the subsequent rally to $69k. As Craig points out, it's difficult to know where we are in a cycle, especially as volatility reduces along with the growth of the cryptocurrency market.
A popular chart called the Wall Street cheat sheet helps investors to track various psychological stages of traditional market cycles. It illustrates the accumulation phase, the run-up, the distribution phase, and the subsequent drop.
There are also ways to notice when cycles might change, such as sudden interest from friends or family members who have never mentioned crypto before. News is also a key factor, particularly events like Elon Musk pumping a random altcoin on a comedy TV show. The longer you spend in the crypto industry, the more apparent these signs of market changes become.
As the episode closes, Tracey explains why institutional investment has caused the recent increase in correlation between Bitcoin and traditional stock markets. Blake and Craig discuss market timing and why dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the best investment strategy
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